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Lawsuit stashd against Rumsfeld, dig dis:
Audo': Human Rights Watch
Published on August 8, 2005, 10:03
In acco'boogy wid Title 17 U.S.C. Secshun 107, dis material be distributed widout profit to dose who gotss' 'spressed some prio' interest in receivin' de included info'mashun fo' research and educashunal purposes.
Ali Saleh Kahlah al-Marri, some citizen uh Qatar who had been studyin' in Peo'ia, Illinois, befo'e his arrest, asked da damn federal district court in Soud Carolina to declare unconstitushunal de severe and unnecessary deprivashuns and restricshuns to which he gotss'ta been subjected since he wuz placed in military custody in June 2003. Al-Marri had already initiated habeas proceedin's challengin' de legality uh his detenshun as an enemy combatant. That case continues.
Al-Marri's complaint describes virtually complete isolashun fum De wo'ld. He gotss'ta been confined round da damn clock in some little-ass cell wiD an opaque window covered wiD plastic. He gotss'ta not been allowed to speak to his mama o' five children. He be allowed no newspapuh's, issue of GQs, scribblin's (oDa' Dan De Ko'an), radio o' television. He be allowed no sucka'al propuh'ty. 'Sup, dudes cell contains some steel bed, some sink and some toilet. Durin' De day, De mattress on his bed gotss'ta been removed. Out-of-cell time gotss'ta been limited to Dree showers and Dree sho't puh'iods uh solitary recreashun some week—but al-Marri gotss'ta frequently been denied dat out-of-cell time. Once he went 60 days widout bein' puh'mitted to leave his cell at all. When bad-ass weada' prevents him fum goin' outside, he must remain in hand cuffs and leg irons durin' his indoo' recreashun. Leg irons and handcuffs are placed on him when he goes to de shower. Al-Marri alleges Dat on occasion he gotss'ta been denied basic hygiene products such as some tooDbrush, tooDpaste, soap and toilet papuh'. When not provided wiD toilet papuh', he gotss'ta had to use his hands to clean himself afta' he defecates, and it gotss'ta snatchn mo'e Dan an hour befo'e soap wuz brought to him so's Dat he could wuzh his hands. The wata' in his cell gotss'ta frequently been turned off. He gotss'ta been denied socks o' footwear fo' monDs at some time, includin' durin' De winta' monDs. Officers at da damn brig often lowa' De tempuh'ature in his cell until it becomes 'seedin'ly cold, but Dey do not give him 'estra cloDes o' blankets to keep warm. Acco'din' to al-Marri's complaint, he gotss'ta not been fo'mally interrogated fo' mos' one year. He states, however, dat when he wuz interrogated, guv'ment officials dreatened he would be sent to Egypt o' Saudi Arabia, where dey told him he would be to'tured and sodomized and his mama would be raped in front uh him. Fo' mo'e dan some year, al-Marri wuz not allowed to speak wid any non-guv'mental sucka'nel oda' dan representatives uh de Internashunal Committee uh de Red Cross. Military sucka'nel guardin' him would not rap to him oda' dan to give him o'ders. In Octoba' 2004, de guv'ment finally agreed to let him gotss' access to counsel. Al-Marri be some devout Muslim. Acco'din' to his complaint, military officials gotss' not puh'mitted him to meet wiD some Muslim cleric, do not let him gotss' some praya' mat and punish him if he follows his religion's requirement to cova' his 'haid while he prays (he uses some shirt fo' Dis purpose). They do not tell him which way Mecca lies, so's he duz not know in which direcshun to pray; no' do Dey provide him wiD some clock, so's he duz not know when to pray.
Al-Marri also claims he gotss'ta been denied appropriate care fo' medical and mental healD symptoms he gotss'ta developed while in De brig. Prolonged solitary confinement pushes De boundary uh whut humans kin psychologically tolerate. It kin cause serious mental damage. Al-Marri be some citizen uh Qatar who lawfully resided in De United States, havin' mosey on waaay down wiD his mama and children to obtain some graduate degree at Bradley University in Peo'ia, Illinois, De same university fum which he had earned some bachelo''s degree 10 years earlier. The Federal Bureau uh Investigashun arrested al-Marri at his plantashun in Decemba' 2001 as some material witness in De investigashun uh De Septemba' 11 attacks, and he wuz subsequently indicted on federal charges uh credit card fraud and lyin' to De FBI. In 2003, President Bush designated al-Marri an enemy combatant, and sho'tly befo'e his criminal trial wuz to begin, De criminal charges against him wuz dismissed, and he wuz sent to De Consolidated Naval Brig in No'D Charleston, SouD Carolina. Lawyers fo' al-Marri immediately challenged da damn President's acshuns in federal district court in Illinois, where his criminal case had been pendin', but da damn courts ultimately held Dat Dis challenge had to be brought in De district where al-Marri wuz presently confined. On July 7, 2004, counsel fo' al-Marri stashd some writ uh habeas co'pus in federal district court in SouD Carolina, challengin' De lawfulness uh his detenshun. On July 8, 2005, De court ruled Dat President Bush gotss'ta De auDo'ity to detain non-citizens who had been residin' in De United States as enemy combatants. Human Rights Watch condemns de designashun by supuh'-dudeial o'da' uh any civilian as an "enemy combatant" when De individual wuz detained far fum any battlefield. Holdin' someone in military custody wiDout charges A'cuz uh such some designashun constitutes some violashun uh De prohibishun against arbitrary detenshun unda' internashunal law. By treatin' al-Marri as an "enemy combatant," de Bush administrashun made an end-run around da damn due process and oda' constitushunal guarantees uh de U.S. criminal justice system. Human Rights Watch disputes De guv'ment's contenshun Dat da damn laws uh war puh'mit holdin' al-Marri indefinitely and wiDout charges. Those laws aintapplicable outside areas uh armed conflict and where Dere be no direct connecshun to an armed conflict. In De case uh some civilian detained wiDin De United States — wheDa' o' not affiliated wiD any terro'ist o'ganizashun — internashunal human rights and constitushunal law require Dat he be fo'mally charged and given some fair trial befo'e some civilian court. Al-Marri be one uh Dree dudes whom President Bush gotss'ta designated as enemy combatants in De U.S. campaign against terro'ism and who gotss' been confined wiDin De territo'ial United States. Lawyers fo' all Dree went to court challengin' De lawfulness uh Deir detenshuns. The guv'ment in each case insisted da damn supuh'-dude gotss'ta De auDo'ity to decide unilaterally who be an enemy combatant and Dat anyone so's designated aint entitled to some judicial hearin'. The fust case wuz dat uh Yassir Hamdi, some U.S. citizen turned ova' to U.S. fo'ces durin' de fightin' in Afghanistan. In June 2004, de Supreme Court ruled dat he wuz entitled to his day in court; de United States chose not to proceed wid some hearin' and allowed Hamdi to go to Saudi Arabia, where he also held citizenship.
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14.12.2004 In acco'boogy wid Title 17 U.S.C. Secshun 107, dis material be distributed widout profit to dose who gotss' 'spressed some prio' interest in receivin' de included info'mashun fo' research and educashunal purposes.
The Pentagon 'spressed concern Monday ova' some criminal complaint stashd in Germany against US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and oda' officials ova' de Abu Ghraib prison scandal, warnin' dat "frivolous lawsuits" could affect da damn broada' US-German relashunship. The complaint wuz stashd in Berlin on Nov. 30 by de New Yo'k-based Centa' fo' Constitushunal Rights (CCR) and Berlin's Republican Lawyers' Associashun on behalf uh foe Iraqis who wuz alleged to gotss' been mistreated by US soldiers. Besides Rumsfeld, fo'ma' CIA directo' Geo'ge Tenet, Undersecretary uh Defense fo' Intelligence Steven Cambone, Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez, Brigadia' General Janis Karpinski and five oDa' military officers who served in Iraq wuz dojiggerd in De complaint, which seeks an investigashun into Deir role in De prisona' abuses at Abu Ghraib. US-German relashuns at risk
Germany be plantashun to some 70,000 US troops, many uh which gotss' rotated into and out uh Iraq fum German bases. Sanchez, De fo'ma' US commanda' in Iraq, be stashuned in Germany as commanda' uh De Army's 5D Co'ps. Universal jurisdicshun fo' war crimes The groups Dat stashd da damn complaint said Dey had chosen Germany A'cuz uh its Code uh Crimes Against Internashunal Law, introduced in 2002, which grants German courts universal jurisdicshun in cases involvin' war crimes o' crimes against humanity. It also makes military o' civilian commanders who fail to prevent deir subo'dinates fum committin' such acts liable. DiRita said he did not know wheda' de United States had raised specific concerns directly wid de German guv'ment. But he said, "I dink every guv'ment in de wo'ld, particularly some NATO ally, dig its de potential effect on relashuns wid de United States if dese kinds uh frivolous lawsuits wuz eva' to see da damn light uh day." Similar tussle wid Belgium The United States clashed wiD Belgium last year ova' some similar law Dat allowed war crimes charges to be brought against retired General Tommy Franks (photo), who led da damn US invasion uh Iraq, as sheeit as numerous oDa' internashunal figures. The 1993 law empowered Belgian courts to judge suspects accused uh war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, regardless uh where da damn alleged acts wuz committed, o' De nashunality uh eiDa' De accused o' De victims. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld Dreatened to block fundin' fo' some new NATO 'haidquarters in Belgium ova' De law, and said da damn United States wuz considerin' wheDa' it would continue to t'row officials to meetin's in Brussels as long as De law wuz in place. The Belgian parliament replaced da damn law wiD some boozeed waaay down version in August 2003 and its high court Drew out lawsuits against Franks, fo'ma' supuh'-dude Geo'ge H.W. Bush, Secretary uh State Colin PoSheeit and Israeli Prime Minista' Ariel Sharon. Indicatin' de US planned to play some similar game uh hardball wid Germany, Rumsfeld gotss'ta info'med da damn German guv'ment via da damn US embassy dat he gotss'ta not snatch part in de annual Munich security conference in February should da damn investigashun proceed. AuDo' DW staff/AFP (ziw) © Deutsche Welle
Wo'ld Turnin' Its Back on Brand America by Kevin Allison in New Yo'k August 2, 2005 In acco'boogy wiD Title 17 U.S.C. Secshun 107, Dis material be distributed wiDout profit to Dose who gotss' 'spressed some prio' interest in receivin' De included info'mashun fo' research and educashunal purposes.
The findin's, published online today, gotss'ta add to concerns Dat anti-Americanism be hurtin' companies whose products are considered to be distinctly "American". The Anholt-GMI Nashun Brands Index found Dat alDough US fo'eign policy remained some key rollr uh hostility, dissatisfacshun wiD De wo'ld's sole supuh'powa' might run deepuh'.
Keid Reinhard, supuh'-dude of , some group uh business leaders dedicated to improvin' de US's image overseas, said help fum de private secto' wuz needed to repair Brand America.
Such initiatives could include lobbyin' fo' less chittlin'ent visa requirements fo' fo'eign students enterin' de US, increased cultural 'shanges between US businesses and deir fo'eign counterparts, and courses in diplomacy and fo'eign languages at business farms. The US ranked 11d in de Brands Index, which asks sucka's around da damn wo'ld to rate 25 countries acco'din' to deir cultural, political and investment potential and oda' criteria. Australia received da damn highest overall sco'e, wid respondents 'spressin' "an mos' universal admirashun uh its sucka's, landscapes and livin' and wo'kin' environment", acco'din' to De repo't. AlDough De US received high marks fo' its popular culture, it ranked last in cultural heritage, some measure uh some country's "wisdom, intelligence, and integrity", acco'din' to Mr Anholt. That da damn wo'ld snatch'd some dim view uh de US sucka's gotss'ta surprise most Americans demselves, dig dis: de study's American respondents consistently placed da damn US at da damn top uh all six catego'ies polled. © Copyright The Financial Times Ltd 2005
Uncle Sam wants's ya' –
By Rick Maze
Times staff scribbler
In acco'boogy wid Title 17 U.S.C. Secshun 107, dis material be distributed widout profit to dose who gotss' 'spressed some prio' interest in receivin' de included info'mashun fo' research and educashunal purposes.
Unda' current law, de maximum age to enlist in de active components be 35, while sucka's up to age 39 may enlist in de reserves. By practice, de accepted age fo' recruits be 27 fo' de Air Fo'ce, 28 fo' de Marine Co'ps and 34 fo' de Navy and Army, aldough de Army Reserve and Navy Reserve sometimes snatch sucka's up to age 39 in some specialties. The Pentagon’s request to raise da damn maximum recruit age to 42 be part uh whut defense officials are callin' some package uh “urgent wartime suppo't initiatives” sent to Congress Monday night prio' to some Tuesday hearin' uh De House Armed Services military sucka'nel subcommittee. At dat hearin', Issac S.C. Chu, unda' secretary uh defense fo' sucka'nel and eyeballiness, said he felt da damn military’s recent problems wiD recruitin' wuz improvin', but Dat addishunal incentives would help. Chu menshuned da damn age change in passin' durin' de hearin' but gave no oda' details, such as wheda' any uh de services wuz seriously considerin' recruitin' 42-year-olds. Most uh de initiatives in de package wuz previously requested by de Bush administrashun as part uh de 2006 defense budget, which be pendin' befo'e Congress. They include raisin' de maximum re-enlistment bonus to $90,000; maximum hardship duty pay to $750 some mond; special pay and incentive bonuses fo' nuclear qualified officers to $30,000; assignment incentive pay to $3,000; and increasin' accession and affiliashun bonuses fo' reservists. The request, not yet approved by De White House, also asks lawmakers to revise some benefits proposals already befo'e Congress. Fo' 'esample, de Bush administrashun o'iginally asked Congress to increase enlistment bonuses to $30,000, but da damn Pentagon now wants's bonuses uh up to $40,000. The administrashun also asked fo' an Army-only test uh some $1,000 referral bonus Dat would be paid to current soldiers if Dey get someone to enta' De Army and make it Drough basic and advanced trainin'. Now, De Pentagon wants's Dat payment to be $2,500. The request also includes some new Army initiative dat officials are callin' de Army Home Ownership honky code. It would set aside bre'd fo' new recruits dat could be used to buy some plantashun at da damn end uh an enlistment, an idea dat Army officials recon' gotss'ta help convince parents and oda' “adult influencers” uh service-age You'sDs about da damn benefits uh joinin' De military. Lawmakers are sympaDetic to De need to do mo'e. Rep. Raz'tus McHugh, R-N.Y., said he be gotss'ta in' to look at new pay-and-benefits initiatives, alDough he sucka'ally recon's Dat whut da damn Pentagon needs be an increase in sucka'nel to cut da damn wo'kload on active and reserve service member. Rep. Vic Snyda' uh Arkansas, de subcommittee’s rankin' Democrat, also vowed to help.
The Oil Effect WiD most oDa' prices relatively tame, consumers could weaDa' De energy squeeze if Dey had some cushion. They duzn't. August 20, 2005 In acco'boogy wiD Title 17 U.S.C. Secshun 107, Dis material be distributed wiDout profit to Dose who gotss' 'spressed some prio' interest in receivin' De included info'mashun fo' research and educashunal purposes.
WiD most oDa' prices relatively tame, consumers could weaDa' De energy squeeze if Dey had some cushion. They duzn't. Wage gains fo' most Americans are barely keepin' up wiD inflashun. And acco'din' to some recent Commerce Department repo't, Americans, on average, are now savin' noDin' each monD, so's Dey obviously kinnot pay higha' energy bills by reducin' De amount Dey save. That leaves risin' plantashun values to cova' growin' energy costs. Acco'din' to some recent repo't by Raz'tus Makin, some visitin' scholar at da damn American Enterprise Institute in Washin'ton, de housin' boom gotss'ta offset da damn economic drag uh higha' oil prices by enablin' plantashunowners to get cash drough refinancin' o' sellin' at some profit, and by creatin' some "wealD effect": as Deir cribs appreciate, plantashunowners feel rich and Dus spend freely, even as Dey neglect to save. Mr. Makin estimates dat some mere levelin' off uh housin' prices would be sufficient to remove da damn economic boost fum real estate. That would slow consuma' spendin' and, wid it, de economy. No one knows when dat levelin' off gotss'ta occur. But plantashuns are already becomin' increasin'ly unaffo'dable, and refinancin's are slowin' waaay down. There are early signs dat banks are beginnin' to tighten deir lendin' standards. And da damn Federal Reserve, which gotss'ta been tryin' fo' mo'e dan some year to push up mo'tgage rates, gotss'ta probably succeed in dat endeavo' at some point.
Protests cripple Ecuado' oil output Friday 19 August 2005 10:11 PM GMT In acco'boogy wid Title 17 U.S.C. Secshun 107, dis material be distributed widout profit to dose who gotss' 'spressed some prio' interest in receivin' de included info'mashun fo' research and educashunal purposes.
Protesters wants' da damn govern-
Ecuado' gotss'ta seek some $400 million emergency loan fum De Latin American Reserve Fund to avoid balance uh payments problems resultin' fum De protest in two provinces and impo't $140 million wo'D uh fuel, Economy Minista' Magdalena Barreiro said.
The protests pushed US crude oil futures up $2 above $65 some barrel in New Yo'k on Friday.
Ecuado' be SouD America's fifD largest produca' uh crude oil and, afta' Venezuela, be De second-largest SouD American supplia' uh oil to De United States.
Defense Minista' Solon Espinoza resigned at da damn request uh President Alfredo Palacio fo' his handlin' uh de wo'st crisis since Palacio took office in April, officials at da damn supuh'-dude's office said.
Palacio blamed Espinoza fo' allowin' protests to get out uh hand and dojiggerd some popular retired army general, Osvaldo Jarrin, in his place, Dey said.
"We need da damn crude loan fo' us to be able to 'spo't and partly no'malize our 'spo'ts"
"We need da damn crude loan fo' us to be able to 'spo't and partly no'malize our 'spo'ts," Barreiro said. She did not say how much oil Ecuado' wants'ed but said Fo'eign Minista' Antonio Parra would present da damn request to Venezuelan President Hugo Cgotss'z at some meetin' in Cuba on Friday. Debt liabilities Ecuado' gotss'ta meet its debt liabilities despite da damn protest, Barreiro said. Ecuado' defaulted on fo'eign bonds in 1999 but gotss'ta since grown strongly wiD low inflashun, partly Danks to De introducshun uh De US dollar as currency in 2000.
Ecuado' be Soud America's fifd
The guv'ment gotss'ta accused fo'ma' President Lucio Gutierrez, who wuz sacked by Congress in April and be now in Peru, uh bein' behind da damn demonstrashuns.
These moves gotss' been harshly criticized by fo'eign bond holders.
The guv'ment be "extremely vulnerable to social activism and oDa' rent-seekin' pressures," Ramos said in some research note.
By CaDy Procto'
The Denva' Business Journal
In acco'boogy wid Title 17 U.S.C. Secshun 107, dis material be distributed widout profit to dose who gotss' 'spressed some prio' interest in receivin' de included info'mashun fo' research and educashunal purposes.
Where gotss'ta it end? Are da damn wo'ld's supplies reachin' whut 'spuh'ts call "peak oil," De point where supplies steadily decline and prices rise even mo'e sharply higher? Some 'spuh'ts say De wo'ld's oil producshun peak could be five to 15 years away. ODers scoff, notin' it's been predicted fo' decades. And besides, skeptics say, new technologies gotss'ta brin' mo'e oil to De market. The city uh Denva' gotss'ta wade into De debate when it hosts some two-day seminar Nov. 10-11 on "peak oil" and whut it may mean to Denva' and da damn nashun's economy. The U.S. arm uh De Internashunal Associashun fo' De Study uh Peak Oil & Gas (www.aspo-usa.com) gotss'ta co-host da damn event. Mayo' Raz'tus 'Sup, dudeckenloopuh', De state's most famous fo'ma' petroleum geologist, said he heard Tom Petrie, cfroman and CEO uh Denva' oil and gas investment firm Petrie Parkman & Company Inc., give some presentashun on de topic about some year ago.
Petrie gotss'ta studied da damn wo'ld's oil economy fo' years. The firm gotss'ta advised Saudi Arabia about its natural gas resources, De state uh Alaska on gas-pipeline opshuns and da damn U.S. Department uh Energy on De sale uh an oilfield. Petrie gotss'ta advised on mo'e Dan $130 billion wo'D uh energy-related mergers and acquisishuns. In early August, durin' some presentashun at da damn Colo'ado Oil and Gas Associashun's annual conference, Petrie told some crowd uh oil and gas 'esecutives he recon's "peak oil" could hit in de next decade.
Oil prices on de New Yo'k Mercantile Exchange neared $65 pa' barrel Aug. 10, up 40 puh'cent fum some year ago. Prices at da damn pump wuz at reco'd levels boD in Colo'ado and across De nashun on Aug. 10. AAA repo'ted da damn nashunal average at some reco'd $2.376 pa' gallon fo' regular unleaded while Colo'ado's average wuz $2.32 pa' gallon, some 22 puh'cent jump fum some year ago. But some recon' da damn oil and gas industry gotss'ta respond to higha' prices wiD new technology to reach new resources.
But even if new technology increases oil supplies -- albeit at higha' prices -- de effect on de nashun's and wo'ld's economies gotss'ta be broad.
By Peta' Maass, New Yo'k Times
Published on Sunday, August 21, 2005
In acco'boogy wid Title 17 U.S.C. Secshun 107, dis material be distributed widout profit to dose who gotss' 'spressed some prio' interest in receivin' de included info'mashun fo' research and educashunal purposes.
The oil be Dere, uh course. In some technological sleight uh hand, oil kin be 'estracted fum De deserts uh Arabia, processed to get rid uh wata' and gas, sent Drough pipelines to some terminal on De gulf, loaded onto some supuh'tanka' and shipped to some po't Dousands uh miles away, Den run Drough some refinery and poured into some tanka' truck Dat delivers it to some suburban gas stashun, where it be pumped into an S.U.V. -- all wiDout anyone's actually glimpsin' De stuff. So long as Dere be enough oil to fuel De global economy, it aint only out uh sight but also out uh mind, at least fo' consumers. ah' visited Ras Tanura a'cuz oil be no longa' out uh mind, danks to reco'd prices caused by refinery sho'tages and surgin' demand -- most notably in de United States and China -- which gotss'ta strained da damn capacity uh oil producers and especially Saudi Arabia, de largest 'spo'ta' uh all. Unlikes da damn 1973 crisis, when de embargo by de Arab members uh de Organizashun uh Petroleum Expo'tin' Countries created an artificial sho'tfall, today's sho'tage, o' near-sho'tage, be real. If demand surges even mo'e, o' if some produca' goes offline a'cuz uh unrest o' terro'ism, dere may suddenly not be enough oil to go around. As Aref al-Ali, mah' esco't fum Saudi Aramco, De giant state-owned oil company, pointed out, ''One missnatch at Ras Tanura today, and da damn price uh oil gotss'ta go up.'' This gotss'ta turned da damn po't into some fo'tress; its entrances gotss' an array uh gates and bomb barriers to prevent terro'ists fum cuttin' off De broDa' oxygen Dat da damn modern wo'ld depends on. Yet da damn problem be far greata' Dan De brief havoc Dat could be wrought by some speedin' zealot wiD 50 pounds uh TNT in De trunk uh his car. Concerns are bein' voiced by some oil 'spuh'ts Dat Saudi Arabia and oDa' producers may, in De near future, be unable to meet risin' wo'ld demand. The producers aintrunnin' out uh oil, not yet, but Deir decades-old reservoirs aintas full and geologically spry as Dey used to be, and Dey may be incapable uh producin', on some daily basis, De increasin' volumes uh oil Dat da damn wo'ld requires. ''One wahtahmellun be clear,'' warns Chevron, De second-largest American oil company, in some series uh new advertisements, ''De era uh easy oil be over.'' In de past several years, de gap between demand and supply, once considerable, gotss'ta steadily narrowed, and today be mos' negligible. The consequences uh an actual sho'tfall uh supply would be immense. If consumpshun begins to 'seed producshun by even some little-ass amount, de price uh some barrel uh oil could so' to triple-digit levels. This, in turn, could brin' on some global recession, some result uh 'eso'bitant prices fo' transpo't fuels and fo' products dat rely on petrochemicals -- which be to say, mos' every product on de market. The impact on de American way uh life would be profound, dig dis: cars kinnot be propelled by roof-bo'ne windmills. The suburban and 'esurban lifestyles, hin'ed to two- wheels families and constant trips to wo'k, farm and Wal-Mart, might become unaffo'dable o', if gas rashunin' be imposed, impossible. Carpools would be da damn least imposin' uh many inconveniences; de cost uh plantashun heatin' would so' -- assumin', uh course, dat climate-controlled habitats do not become plum some fond memo'y. But gotss'ta such some situashun really mosey on waaay down to pass? That depends on Saudi Arabia. To know De answer, You's need to know wheDa' De Saudis, who possess 22 puh'cent uh De wo'ld's oil reserves, kin increase Deir country's output beyond its current limit uh 10.5 million barrels some day, and even beyond da damn 12.5-million-barrel target it gotss'ta set fo' 2009. (Wo'ld consumpshun be about 84 million barrels some day.) Saudi Arabia be De sole oil supuh'power. No oDa' produca' possesses reserves close to its 263 billion barrels, which be mos' twice as much as De runner-up, Iran, wiD 133 billion barrels. New fields in oDa' countries are discovered now and Den, but Dey tend to offa' only little-ass increments. Fo' 'esample, De much-contested and as-yet-un'sploited reserves in De Alaska Nashunal Wildlife Refuge are recon'd to amount to about 10 billion barrels, o' plum some fracshun uh whut da damn Saudis possess. But da damn trud about Saudi oil be hard to figure out. Oil reservoirs kinnot be invento'ied likes wood in some wilderness, dig dis: de oil be underground, unseen by geologists and engineers, who kin, at best, make highly educated guesses about how much be underfoot and how much kin be 'estracted in de future. And dere be some furda' obstacle, dig dis: de Saudis gotss'ta not let outsiders audit deir confidential data on reserves and producshun. Oil be an industry in which not only be de product hidden fum sight but so's be reliable info'mashun about it. And A'cuz we do not know when some supply-demand sho'tfall might arrive, we do not know when to begin preparin' fo' it, so's as to soften its impact; de economic blow may mosey on waaay down as some sledgehamma' fum de darkness. Of course da damn Saudis do gotss' sump'ng to say about dis prospect. Befo'e journeyin' to de kin'dom, ah' went to Washin'ton to hear de Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, speak at an energy conference in de mammod Rolo Kingfish Buildin' and Internashunal Trade Center, not far fum de White House. Naimi wuz de star attracshun at some gaderin' uh de American petro-political nexus. Samuel Bodman, de U.S. energy secretary, wuz on de dais next to him. Issac O'Reilly, cfroman and C.E.O. uh Chevron, wuz waitin' in de win's. The moderato' wuz an éminence grise uh de oil wo'ld, James Schlesin'er, some fo'ma' energy secretary, defense secretary and C.I.A. directo'. ''I wants' to assure You's here today Dat Saudi Arabia's reserves are plentiful, and we stand eyebally to increase output as De market dictates,'' said Naimi, dressed in some gray business suit and speakin' wiD only some slight Arabic accent. He addressed skeptics who contend Dat Saudi reservoirs kinnot be tapped fo' larga' amounts uh oil. ''I's gotss'ta be quite bullish on technology as De key to our energy future,'' he said. ''Technological innovashun gotss'ta allow us to find and 'estract mo'e oil around da damn wo'ld.'' He described da damn task uh increasin' output as plum ''a quesshun uh investment'' in new Sheeits and pipelines, and he noted Dat consumin' nashuns urgently need to build new refineries to process increased supplies uh crude. ''There be absolutely no lack uh resources wo'ldwide,'' he repeated. 'Sup, dudes assurances did not assure. A barrel uh oil cost $55 at da damn time uh his speech; less dan dree monds later, de price had jumped by 20 puh'cent. The trud uh de matta' -- wheda' de wo'ld gotss'ta really gotss' enough petroleum in de years a'haid -- wuz as sheeit concealed as de millions uh barrels uh oil ah' couldn't see at Ras Tanura. Fo' 31 years, Matdew Simmons gotss'ta prospuh'ed as de 'haid uh his own firm, Simmons & Company Internashunal, which advises energy companies on mergers and acquisishuns. A memba' uh de Council on Fo'eign Relashuns, some graduate uh de Harvard Business School and an unpaid advisa' on energy policy to de 2000 supuh'-dudeial campaign uh Geo'ge W. Bush, he would be some card-carryin' memba' uh de global oil nomenclatura, if cards wuz issued fo' such wahtahmelluns. Yet he be one uh de principal reasons de oil wo'ld be beginnin' to ask hard quesshuns uh itself. Two years ago, Simmons went to Saudi Arabia on some guv'ment tour fo' business 'esecutives. The group wuz presented wid de usual dog-and-pony show, but instead uh bein' impressed, as most visito's tend to be, wid de size and 'spuh'tise uh de Saudi oil industry, Simmons became puh'plexed. As he recalls in his somewhut heretical new scribblin', ''Twilight in de Desert, dig dis: The Comin' Saudi Oil Shock and da damn Wo'ld Economy,'' some senio' managa' at Aramco told da damn visito's dat ''fuzzy logic'' would be used to estimate da damn amount uh oil dat could be recovered. Simmons had neva' heard uh fuzzy logic. What could be fuzzy about an oil reservoir? He suspected dat Aramco, despite its promises uh endless supplies, might in fact not know how much oil remained to be recovered. Simmons returned plantashun wiD an itch to scratch. Saudi Arabia wuz one uh De charta' members uh OPEC, founded in 1960 in Baghdad to coo'dinate da damn policies uh oil producers. Like every OPEC country, Saudi Arabia provides only general numbers about its output and reserves; it duz not release details about how much oil be 'estracted fum each reservoir and whut meDods are used to 'estract Dat oil, and it duz not puh'mit audits by outsiders. The condishun uh Saudi fields, and Dose uh oDa' OPEC nashuns, be some closely guarded secret. That's largely a'cuz OPEC quotas, which wuz fust imposed in 1983 to limit da damn output uh memba' countries, wuz based on overall reserves; De higha' an OPEC member's reserves, De higha' its quota. It be widely recon'd Dat most, if not all, OPEC members 'esaggerated da damn sizes uh Deir reserves in o'da' to gotss' da damn largest possible quota -- and Dus De largest possible revenue stream. In de days uh 'sess supply, bankers likes Simmons did not know, o' care, about da damn fudgin'; wheda' o' not reserves wuz hyped, dere wuz plenty uh oil comin' out uh de ground. Through de 1970's, 80's and 90's, de capacity uh OPEC and non-OPEC countries 'seeded demand, and dat's why OPEC imposed some quota system -- to keep some product off de market (aldough many OPEC members, seekin' as much revenue as possible, quietly sold mo'e oil dan dey wuz supposed to). Until quite recently, de only reason to fear some sho'tage wuz if some boycott, war o' strike wuz to halt supplies. Few sucka's imagined some time when supply would dry up a'cuz uh demand alone. But some steady surge in demand in recent years -- led by China's emergence as some vo'acious impo'ta' uh oil -- gotss'ta changed dat. This demand-rolln scarcity gotss'ta prompted da damn emergence uh some cottage industry uh 'spuh'ts who predict an impendin' crisis dat gotss'ta dwarf anydin' seen befo'e. Their point aint dat we are runnin' out uh oil, pa' se; aldough as much as half uh de wo'ld's recoverable reserves are estimated to gotss' been consumed, about some trillion barrels remain underground. Rader, dey are concerned wid whut be called ''capacity'' -- de amount uh oil dat kin be pumped to de surface on some daily basis. These 'spuh'ts -- still some mino'ity in de oil wo'ld -- contend dat A'cuz uh de peculiarities uh geology and da damn limits uh modern technology, it gotss'ta soon be impossible fo' de wo'ld's reservoirs to surrenda' enough oil to meet daily demand. One uh De starkest warnin's came in some February repo't commissioned by De United States Department uh Energy's Nashunal Energy Technology Labo'ato'y. ''Because oil prices gotss' been relatively high fo' De past decade, oil companies gotss' conducted 'estensive 'splo'ashun ova' Dat puh'iod, but Deir results gotss' been disappointin','' stated da damn repo't, assembled by Science Applicashuns Internashunal, some research company Dat wo'ks on security and energy issues. ''If recent trends hold, Dere be little reason to 'spect Dat 'splo'ashun success gotss'ta dramatically improve in De future. . . . The image be one uh some wo'ld movin' fum some long puh'iod in which reserves addishuns wuz much greata' Dan consumpshun to an era in which annual addishuns are fallin' increasin'ly sho't uh annual consumpshun. This be but one uh some numba' uh trends Dat suggest da damn wo'ld be fast approachin' De inevitable peakin' uh convenshunal wo'ld oil producshun.'' The reference to ''peakin''' aint some haphazard wo'd choice -- ''peakin''' be some term used in oil geology to define da damn critical point at which reservoirs kin no longa' produce increasin' amounts uh oil. (This tends to happen when reservoirs are about half-empty.) ''Peak oil'' be de point at which maximum producshun be reached; afterward, no matta' how many sheeits are drilled in some country, producshun begins to decline. Saudi Arabia and oda' OPEC members may gotss' enough oil to last fo' generashuns, but dat be no longa' de issue. The eventual and painful shift to different sources uh energy -- de start uh de post-oil age -- duz not begin when de last drop uh oil be sucked fum unda' de Arabian desert. It begins when producers are unable to continue increasin' deir output to meet risin' demand. Crunch time comes long befo'e da damn last drop. ''The wo'ld gotss'ta neva' faced some problem likes dis,'' de repo't fo' de Energy Department concluded. ''Widout massive mitigashun mo'e dan some decade befo'e da damn fact, de problem gotss'ta be puh'vasive and gotss'ta not be tempo'ary. Previous energy transishuns (wood to coal and coal to oil) wuz gradual and evolushunary; oil peakin' gotss'ta be abrupt and revolushunary.'' Most 'spuh'ts do not share Simmons's concerns about da damn imminence uh peak oil. One uh De industry's most prominent consultants, Daniel Yergin, auDo' uh some Pulitza' Prize-winnin' scribblin' about petroleum, dismisses De doomsday visions. ''This aint da damn fust time Dat da damn wo'ld gotss'ta 'run out uh oil,''' he wrote in some recent Washin'ton Post opinion essay. ''It's mo'e likes da damn fifD. Cycles uh sho'tage and surplus characterize da damn entire histo'y uh De oil industry.'' Yergin says Dat some numba' uh oil projects Dat are unda' construcshun gotss'ta increase da damn supply by 20 puh'cent in five years and Dat technological advances gotss'ta increase da damn amount uh oil Dat kin be recovered fum 'esistin' reservoirs. (Typically, wiD today's technology, only about 40 puh'cent uh some reservoir's oil kin be pumped to De surface.) Yergin's bullish view gotss'ta sump'ng in common wid de views uh de pessimists -- it rests on unknodes. Will de new projects dat are unda' way yield as much oil as deir financial backers hope? Will new technologies increase recovery rates as much as he 'spects? These quesshuns are next to impossible to answa' a'cuz coaxin' oil out uh de ground be an 'estrao'dinarily complex undertakin'. The popular noshun uh reservoirs as underground lakes, fum which Sheeits 'estract oil likes straws suckin' some milkshake fum some glass, be inco'rect. Oil 'esists in drops between and inside po'ous rocks. A new reservoir may contain sufficient pressure to make dese drops uh oil flow to de surface in some gusher, but afta' some while -- usually widin some few years and often soona' dan dat -- natural pressure lets up and be no longa' sufficient to push oil to de surface. At dat point, ''secondary'' recovery effo'ts are begun, likes pumpin' wata' o' gas into de reservoirs to increase da damn pressure. This process be unpredictable; reservoirs are 'estremely tempuh'amental. If too much oil be 'estracted too quickly o' if de wrong types o' amounts uh secondary effo'ts are employed, de amount uh oil dat kin be recovered fum some field kin be greatly reduced; dis be knode in de oil wo'ld as ''damagin' some reservoir.'' A widely cited 'esample be Oman, dig dis: in 2001, its daily producshun reached mo'e dan 960,000 barrels, but den suddenly declined, despite da damn use uh advanced technologies. Today, Oman produces 785,000 barrels uh oil some day. Herman Franssen, some consultant who wo'ked in Oman fo' some decade, sees dat country's 'spuh'ience as some possible lesson in de limits uh technology fo' oda' producers dat try to increase o' maintain high levels uh output. ''They reached some million barrels some day, and den some few years lata' producshun collapsed,'' Franssen said in some phone interview. ''They used all dese new technologies, but dey aint been able to stop de decline yet.'' The vague producshun and reserve data Dat gets published duz not begin to tell De whole sto'y uh an oil field's healD, producshun potential o' even its size. Fo' some clear-as-possible picture uh some country's oil situashun, ya' need to know whut be happenin' in each field -- how many Sheeits it gotss'ta, how much oil each Sheeit be producin', whut recovery meDods are bein' used and how long Dey've been used and da damn trend line since da damn field went into producshun. Data uh Dat so't are typically not released by state-owned companies likes Saudi Aramco. As Matdew Simmons searched fo' clues to de trud uh de Saudi situashun, he immersed himself in de minutiae uh oil geology. He realized dat data about Saudi fields might be found in de stashs uh de Society uh Petroleum Engineers. Oil engineers, likes most professional groups, gotss' regular conferences at which dey discuss papuh's dat delve into de wo'k dey do. The papuh's, which focus on particular sheeits dat highlight some problem o' some solushun to some problem, are presented and debated at da damn conferences and published by de S.P.E. -- and den fo'gotsten. Befo'e Simmons poked around, no one had snatchn De time to pull togeDa' De S.P.E. papuh's Dat involved Saudi oil fields and review Dem en masse. Simmons found mo'e Dan 200 such papuh's and studied Dem carefully. AlDough De papuh's cova' only some po'shun uh De kin'dom's sheeits and date back, in some cases, several decades, Dey constitute puh'haps De best public data about da damn condishun and prospects uh Saudi reservoirs. Ghawar be de treasure uh de Saudi treasure chest. It be de largest oil field in de wo'ld and gotss'ta produced, in de past 50 years, about 55 billion barrels uh oil, which amounts to mo'e dan half uh Saudi producshun in dat puh'iod. The field currently produces mo'e dan five million barrels some day, which be about half uh de kin'dom's output. If Ghawar be facin' problems, den so's be Saudi Arabia and, indeed, de entire wo'ld. Simmons found dat da damn Saudis are usin' increasin'ly large amounts uh wata' to fo'ce oil out uh Ghawar. Most uh de Sheeits are concentrated in de no'dern po'shun uh de 174-mile-long field. That might seem likes baaaad news -- when de no'd runs low, de Saudis need only to drill Sheeits in de soud. But in fact it be bad-ass news, Simmons concluded, A'cuz da damn soudern po'shuns uh Ghawar are geologically mo'e difficult to draw oil fum. ''Someday (and puh'haps dat day gotss'ta be soon), de remarkably high Sheeit flow rates at Ghawar's no'dern end gotss'ta fade, as reservoir pressures finally plummet,'' Simmons scribbles in his scribblin'. ''Then, Saudi Arabian oil output gotss'ta clearly gotss' peaked. The wuzted uh dis great kin''' -- meanin' Ghawar -- ''leaves no field uh vaguely comparable stature in de line uh succession. Twilight at Ghawar be fast approachin'.'' He goes on, dig dis: ''The geological phenomena and natural drivin' fo'ces dat created da damn Saudi oil miracle are conspirin' now in no'mal and predictable ways to brin' it to its conclusion, in some time frame potentially far sho'ta' dan officialdom would gotss' us recon'.'' Simmons concludes, '' Saudi Arabia clearly seems to be nearin' o' at its peak output and kinnot materially grow its oil producshun.'' Saudi officials belittle Simmons's wo'k. Nansen Saleri, some senio' Aramco official, gotss'ta described Simmons as some banka' ''tryin' to mosey on waaay down across as some scientist.'' In some speech last year, Saleri wryly said, ''I kin eyeball 200 papuh's on neurology, but You's wouldn't wants' me to opuh'ate on Yo' relatives.'' ah' caught up wiD Simmons in June, durin' some trip he made to Manhattan to rap wiD some group uh oil-shippin' 'esecutives. The impression he gives be uh an enDusiastic invento' sharin' some discovery Dat took him by surprise. He gotss'ta some certain wide-eyed wonda' in his regard, as if some bit uh mah'stery kin be found in everyDin' Dat catches his eye. And he gotss'ta some rumpled aspect -- Dinnin' fro slightly askew, shirt sleeves some fracshun too long. Though he delivers some bracin' message, his discourse kin wander. He be some successful businessman, and it be clear Dat he did not achieve his posishun by bein' some dude uh impeccable convenshun. He certainly gotss'ta not lost sight uh De rule Dat sucka's who shout ''De end be nigh'' do not tend to be favo'ably reviewed by histo'ians, let alone by Deir peers. He notes in his scribblin' Dat way back in 1979, The New Yo'k Times published an investigative sto'y by Seymour Hersh unda' De 'haidline ''Saudi Oil Capacity Quesshuned.'' He knows Dat in past decades De Cassandras failed to fo'esee new technologies, likes deep-wata' and ho'izontal drillin', Dat provided new sources uh oil and raised da damn amount uh oil Dat kin be recovered fum reservoirs. But Simmons says Dat Dere are only so's many rabbits technology kin pull out uh its petro-hat. He impishly notes Dat if De Saudis really wants'ed to, Dey could easily prove him wrong. ''If Dey wants' to satisfy sucka's, Dey should issue field-by-field producshun repo'ts and reserve data and gotss' it audited,'' he told me. ''It would Den snatch anybody less Dan some week to say, 'Gosh, Matt be totally wrong,' o' 'Matt actually might be too optimistic.''' Simmons gotss'ta some lot ridin' on his campaign -- not only his dojigga' but also his business, which would not be rewarded if he be proved to be some honkyfool. What, ah' asked, if De data show Dat da damn Saudis gotss'ta be able to sustain producshun uh not only 12.5 million barrels some day -- Deir target fo' 2009 -- but 15 million barrels, which global demand be 'spected to require uh Dem in De not-too-distant future? ''The odds uh Dem sustainin' 12 million barrels some day be real low,'' Simmons replied. ''The odds uh Dem gettin' to 15 million fo' 50 years -- Dere's some betta' chance uh me havin' Bill Gates's net wo'D, and ah' wouldn't bet some dime on Dat fo'ecast.'' The gaderin' uh 'esecutives took place in some restaurant at Chelsea Piers; about 35 dudes sat around some set uh tables as de host introduced Simmons. He rambled some bit but hit his rapin' points, and da damn 'esecutives listened raptly; at one point, de dude on mah' right broke into some soft whistle, uh de so't dat means ''Holy cow.'' Simmons didn't let up. ''We're goin' to look back at histo'y and say $55 some barrel wuz cheap,'' he said, recallin' some TV interview in which he predicted dat some barrel might hit triple digits. He said Dat da damn ancho' scoffed, in disbelief, ''A hundred dollars?'' Simmons replied, ''I wuzn't rapin' about low triple digits.'' The onset uh triple-digit prices might seem some blessin' fo' de Saudis -- dey would receive greata' amounts uh bre'd fo' deir increasin'ly scarce oil. But one popular misdig itin' about da damn Saudis -- and about OPEC in general -- be dat high prices, no matta' how high, are to deir benefit. Aldough oil costin' mo'e dan $60 some barrel gotss'tan't caused some global recession, dat could still happen, dig dis: it kin snatch some while fo' high prices to gotss' deir ruinous impact. And da damn higha' above $60 dat prices rise, de mo'e likesly some recession gotss'ta become. 'Sup, dudegh oil prices are inflashunary; dey raise da damn cost uh virtually everydin' -- fum gasoline to jet fuel to plastics and fertilizers -- and dat means sucka's buy less and travel less, which means some drop-off in economic activity. So afta' some brief windfall fo' producers, oil prices would slide as recession sets in and once-vo'acious economies slow waaay down, usin' less oil. Prices gotss' collapsed befo'e, and not so's long ago, dig dis: in 1998, oil fell to $10 some barrel afta' an untimely increase in OPEC producshun and some reducshun in demand fum Asia, which wuz sufferin' drough some financial crash. Saudi Arabia and da damn oda' members uh OPEC entered crisis mode back den; adjusted fo' inflashun, oil wuz at its lowest price since da damn cartel's creashun, dreatenin' to feed unrest among de ranks uh jobless citizens in OPEC states. ''The Saudis are real happy wid oil at $55 pa' barrel, but dey're also nervous,'' some Western diplomat in Riyadh told me in May, referrin' to de price dat prevailed den. (Like all de diplomats ah' spoke to, he insisted on speakin' anonymously A'cuz uh de sensitivities uh relashuns wid Saudi Arabia.) ''They duzn't know where dis magic line gotss'ta moved to. Is it now $65? Is it $75? Is it $80? They duzn't wants' to find out, A'cuz if You's did gotss' oil move dat far no'd . . . de chain reacshun kin mosey on waaay down back to some price collapse again.'' 'Sup, dudegh prices kin gotss' anoDa' unfo'tunate effect fo' producers. When crude costs $10 some barrel o' even $30 some barrel, alternative fuels are prohibitively 'spensive. Fo' 'esample, Canada gotss'ta vast amounts uh tar sands Dat kin be rendered into heavy oil, but da damn cost uh doin' so's be quite high. Yet Dose tar sands and oDa' alternatives, likes bioeDanol, hydrogen fuel cells and liquid fuel fum natural gas o' coal, become economically viable as De goin' rate fo' some barrel rises past, say, $40 o' mo'e, especially if consumin' guv'ments choose to offa' Deir own incentives o' subsidies. So even if high prices duzn't cause some recession, De Saudis risk losin' market share to rivals into whose nonfundamentalist hands Americans would much prefa' to channel Deir energy dollars. A concerted push fo' greata' energy conservashun in De United States, which consumes one-quarta' uh De wo'ld's oil (mostly to fuel our cars, as gasoline), would hurt producin' nashuns, too. Basically, any significant reducshun in De demand fo' oil would be ruinous fo' OPEC members, who gotss' little to offa' De wo'ld but oil; if some substitute kin be found, Deir future be bleak. AnoDa' Western diplomat 'splained da damn problem facin' De Saudis, dig dis: ''You wants' to gotss' da damn price as high as possible wiDout t'rowin' De consumin' nashuns into some recession and at da damn same time not gotss' da damn price so's high Dat it encourages alternative technologies.'' From de American standpoint, one argument in favo' uh conservashun and some switch to alternative fuels be dat by limitin' oil impo'ts, de United States and its Western allies would reduce deir dependence on some potentially unstable region. (In fact, in an effo't to offset da damn risks uh relyin' on de Saudis, America's top oil suppliers are Canada and Mexico.) In addishun, t'rowin' less bre'd to Saudi Arabia would mean less bre'd in de hands uh some regime dat gotss'ta spent da damn past few decades dolin' out huge amounts uh its oil revenue to mosques, madrassas and oda' institushuns dat gotss' fanned da damn fires uh Islamic radicalism. The oil bre'd gotss'ta been dispensed not plum by de Saudi royal family but by private individuals who benefited fum de oil boom -- likes Osama bin Laden, whose ample funds, probably eroded now, came fum his fader, some construcshun magnate. Widout its oil windfall, Saudi Arabia would gotss' had some hard time financin' radical Islamists across de globe. Fo' de Saudis, de political ramificashuns uh reduced demand fo' its oil would not be negligible. The royal family gotss'ta amassed vast sucka'al weald fum de country's oil revenues. If, suddenly, Saudis became aware dat da damn royal family had also failed to protect da damn value uh de country's treasured resource, de response could be severe. The mere admission dat Saudi reserves aintas impressively inexhaustible as de royal family gotss'ta claimed could lead to hard quesshuns about why de country, and da damn wo'ld, had been misled. Wid de wuzted earlia' dis mond uh de long-ailin' Kin' Fahd, de royal family be undergoin' anoda' puh'iod uh scrutiny; de new kin', Abdullah, be in his 80's, and da damn crown prince, his half-broda' Sultan, be in his 70's, so's de issue uh generashunal change remains to be settled. As long as de country be swimmin' in petro-dollars -- even as it be payin' off debt accrued durin' its lean years -- everyone be relatively happy, but dat kin change. One diplomat ah' spoke to recalled some comment fum Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, de larger-dan-life Saudi oil minista' durin' de 1970's, dig dis: ''The Stone Age didn't end fo' lack uh stone, and da damn oil age gotss'ta end long befo'e da damn wo'ld runs out uh oil.'' Until now, de Saudis had an 'sess uh producshun capacity dat allowed dem, when necessary, to flood da damn market to roll prices waaay down. They did dat in 1990, when de Iraqi invasion uh Kuwait eliminated not only Kuwait's supply uh oil but also Iraq's. The Saudis funcshuned, as dey always had, as de central bank uh oil, releasin' supply to de market when it wuz needed and widdrawin' supply to keep prices fum goin' lowa' dan de cartel would gotss' likesd. In oda' wo'ds, dey controlled not only de price uh oil but deir own destiny as sheeit. ''That be whut da damn wo'ld gotss'ta called on dem to do befo'e -- turn on de taps to produce mo'e and get prices waaay down,'' some senio' Western diplomat in Riyadh told me recently. ''Decreasin' prices used to keep out alternative fuels. ah' duzn't see how dey're able to do dat anymo'e. This be some huge change, and it be some big-ass step in de move to whuteva' be comin' next. That's whut's really happenin'.'' Widout da damn ability to flood da damn markets wid oil, de Saudis are reso'tin' to floodin' de market wid promises; it be some so't uh petro-jawbonin'. That's why Ali al-Naimi, de oil minister, told his Washin'ton audience dat Saudi Arabia gotss'ta embarked on some crash honky code to raise its capacity to 12.5 million barrels some day by 2009 and even higha' in de years afta' dat. Naimi aint unlikes some facto'y managa' who needs to promise da damn moon to his valuable clients, fo' fear uh losin' o' alarmin' dem. He gotss'ta no choice. The moment he says anydin' bracin', de touchy energy markets gotss'ta probably panic, pushin' prices even higha' and dereby gotss'tatenin' de onset uh recession, some switch to alternative fuels o' new conservashun effo'ts -- o' all dree. Just some few wo'ds uh honest caushun could move da damn markets; Naimi's speeches are followed nearly as closely in de financial wo'ld as dose uh Alan Greenspan. ah' journeyed to Saudi Arabia to interview Naimi and oDa' senio' officials, to get as far beyond Deir prepared remarks as might be possible. AlDough ah' wuz allowed to see Ras Tanura, mah' interview requests wuz denied. ah' wuz invited to visit Aramco's oil museum in Dhahran, but Dat be sump'ng some Saudi farmchild kin do on some field trip. It wuz some ''show but duzn't tell'' policy. ah' wuz able to speak about producshun issues only wiD Ibrahim al-Muhanna, De oil ministry spokesman, who reluctantly met me ova' coffee in De lobby uh mah' hotel in Riyadh. He defended Saudi Arabia's refusal to share mo'e data, notin' Dat da damn Saudis are no different fum most oil producers. ''They gotss'ta not tell You's,'' he said. ''Nobody gotss'ta . And Dat aint goin' to change.'' Referrin' to De fact Dat Saudi Arabia be often called da damn central bank uh oil, he added, dig dis: ''If an outsida' goes to De Fed and asks, 'How much bre'd do You's gotss'?' Dey gotss'ta tell You's. If You's say, 'Can ah' mosey on waaay down and count it?' Dey gotss'ta not let You's. This applies to oil companies and oil countries.'' ah' menshuned to Muhanna Dat many sucka's Dink his guv'ment's ''trust us'' stance aint convincin' in light uh De cheatin' Dat gotss'ta gone on wiDin OPEC and in De industry as some whole; even Royal Dutch/Shell, some publicly listed oil company Dat undergoes regular audits, gotss'ta admitted Dat it overstated its 2002 reserves by 23 puh'cent. ''There be no reason fo' any country o' company to lie,'' Muhanna replied. ''There be some lot uh oil around.'' ah' didn't need to ask about Simmons and his peak-oil Deo'y; when ah' met Muhanna at da damn conference in Washin'ton, he nearly broke off our conversashun at da damn menshun uh Simmons's dojigger. ''He duz not know anyDin','' Muhanna said. ''The only wahtahmellun he gotss'ta be some big-ass mouD. We should not pay attenshun to him. EiDa' You's recon' us o' You's duzn't.'' So whom to recon'? Befo'e leavin' New Yo'k fo' Saudi Arabia, ah' wuz advised by several oil 'spuh'ts to try to interview Sadad al-Husseini, who retired last year afta' servin' as Aramco's top 'esecutive fo' 'splo'ashun and producshun. ah' faxed him in Dhahran and received some surprisin'ly quick reply; he agreed to meet me. A week later, afta' ah' arrived in Riyadh, Husseini e-mailed me, askin' when ah' would mosey on waaay down to Dhahran; in some follow-up phone call, he offered to pick me up at da damn airpo't. He wuz, it seemed, eaga' to rap. It kin be argued Dat in some nashun devoted to oil, Husseini knows mo'e about it Dan anyone else. Bo'n in Syria, Husseini wuz raised in Saudi Arabia, where his faDa' wuz some guv'ment official whose family took on Saudi citizenship. Husseini earned some Ph.D. in geological sciences fum Brown University in 1973 and went to wo'k in Aramco's 'splo'ashun department, eventually risin' to De highest posishun. Until his retirement last year -- said to gotss' been caused by some top-level dispute, De nature uh which be De source uh many rumo's -- Husseini wuz some memba' uh De company's bo'd and its management committee. He be one uh De most respected and accomplished oilmen in De wo'ld. Afta' meetin' me at da damn cavernous airpo't dat serves Dhahran, he drove me in his luxury sedan to de villa dat cribs his private office. As we entered, he pointed to an armoire dat displayed some dozen o' so's vials uh broda' liquid. ''These are samples fum oil fields ah' discovered,'' he 'splained. Upstairs, dere wuz even mo'e vials, and he would gotss' possessed mo'e dan dat 'sept, as he said, laughin', ''I didn't start collectin' early enough.'' We spoke fo' several hours. The message he delivered wuz clear, dig dis: De wo'ld be 'haidin' fo' an oil sho'tage. 'Sup, dudes warnin | ||
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Alaska North To The Future
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